Nuclear Iran is not in Pakistan’s interest
Pakistan cannot afford the devastating human and economic implications a nuclearised Iran could bring. PHOTO: AFP
Since the International Atomic Energy Agency issued its latest findings on Iran’s nuclear program and activities, policy-makers in the West and the United States in particular are weighing their options on how to respond to Iran’s continued defiance of its Non-Proliferation Treaty obligations.
The Islamic Republic’s nuclear program has possible military dimensions and its stated “peacefulness” lacks credibility. Alarm bells in Israel have been ringing for a long time and a pre-emptive strike on Iran’s nuclear sites seems imminent. Not much is being discussed in Pakistan about the implications of a nuclear Iran, precisely due to Pakistan being consumed by its own problems with the on-going political turmoil and its relations with the United States.
This is an alarming development not only for the geopolitical balance in the Middle East, but also for South Asia. A nuclear Iran is not in Pakistan’s interests. Considering that Iran’s regional interests do not align with those of Pakistan, a nuclear Iran has serious implications of greater belligerent behaviour, regional hegemony and bullying. Even though Pakistan is a nuclear state and any nuclear aggression towards us will be deterred, it would immensely reduce our leverage in relations with Iran—if any.
Being the only Muslim nuclear country, a nuclear Pakistan still has some symbolic value in the eyes of the Muslim world. Even though we are economically weak and, at the behest of foreign financial institutions and governments, our national defence posture will take a deep slide with a nuclear armed state on our western border.
The interests of Pakistan and Iran clash in Afghanistan, and Iran’s relations with our key ally in the Middle East, Saudi Arabia, remain rocky. In the event of a military confrontation between Iran and the West, Pakistan and an unstable Iraq would be the most effected countries due to the spill-over from a potential war. At this time and most likely in the near future, at least Pakistan cannot further bear the burden of a refugee influx. In addition, India’s improving relations with Iran is also mind-boggling for our India-centric attitude and policy. Not that I am justifying this historic posture of ours, this attitude is still wide-spread in the security establishment. We must take that into account.
An ideologically inclined state, Iran’s sectarian outlook and ambitions of regional hegemony will create further divides in the Muslim world and the Middle East in particular. One should also not forget that Iran has played a role in inciting sectarian violence in Pakistan, supporting various Shia factions against their Sunni counterparts. Attaining nuclear status would strengthen Iran’s position and possibly its belligerence in fuelling the sectarian strife.
Iran’s offensive, nonsensical and aggravating statements and position only furthers the prospect of more wars in this region. Just recently, Saudi Arabia Prince Turki al-Faisal, who was the former chief of Saudi Intelligence, expressed the Kingdom’s desire to develop nuclear weapons to counter a future Iranian threat. “It is our duty toward our nation and people to consider all options” he was quoted as saying.
This is a serious development that could spark a potential arms race in the Middle East. We could engage in an intellectual debate about the rationality of these state actors and their willingness to use nuclear weapons—if they attain the capability—but the thought of them going nuclear sends a chill through the rational mind. Many in the West also fear that a nuclear Iran will become bolder in the use of its proxies, namely Hamas and Hezbollah.
It is imperative that Pakistan convene a meeting of the Organization of Islamic Conference (OIC) to pressure Iran into abandoning its continued defiance of its international obligations – the NPT and the United Nations Security Council Resolutions. Pakistan, along with its allies in the Middle East, should pressure Iran to come to the negotiation table and respect its UN obligations. To avoid a potential arms race in the Middle East and a dooms-day scenario where there may be a nuclear exchange – either by states or through non-state actors – Pakistan should jump on the bandwagon into pressurizing Iran.
Pakistan could not care less about addressing the fears of the West. I suggest this because this is in Pakistan’s vital national security interests and everything should be done to avoid being sandwiched between two nuclear states. We also need to look out for our regional interests in the Middle East. A nuclearised region could have devastating human and economic implications for the region and the world. Pakistan cannot afford either in its current state of weakness.
The views expressed by the writer and the reader comments do not necessarily reflect the views and policies of The Express Tribune.
Did Iran stop us when we were making the bomb?.there are other more important things that can make a country strong and we better concentrate on them,like for example,economy,power production sector,education and improved socio-political structure etc,etc,We can,if we wish to be sensible,learn from the example of Japan,the only country to have received 2 A/bombs at the end of 2nd WW.Without wasting a single moment she turned her entire energies to improve her economy and where does that small earthquake-ridden and recent tsunami-stricken country stand to-day.She has no A/bombs,no war mania just hard-work and resilient-determination to excel economy-wise and her people are better-off than many other,other-wise privileged countries.We on the other hand keep talking of war-war-war,A/bomb-A/bomb and so on,when will we ever learn?Recommend
Dear writter which county has made our vital region nuclearised?.Were it Iran or Pakistan?.Were it Iran or Israel and West?.which countries should
be impossed sanction? which country shoul be pressure in oic .Pakistan or Iran?.Recommend
Pakistan ought to try and be close to its neighbors instead of allying with distant powers like the west and gulf arabs and making the regions unstable. Iran and India should be our closest allies instead of nations which we fear.
The Saudis and the West will eventually lose interest in us or go kaput and then they will be of no use to us, but the Indians and the Iranians are not going away.
@shoaib khan afridi
Pakistan only harmed itself by supporting the Taliban. And when asking for examples of Shias fighting the Americans tell me if you even can give examples of non-pushtoon Sunnis fighting Americans? There arent. Thast because our Taliban are not Mujaheddin, they are a bunch of racial supremacists. And any afghan who isnt a pathan whether Shia or Sunni hates them because they have killed thousands of innocent people.
And why have you not mentioned Shias fighting the Americans in Iraq and fighting the Israelis in Lebanon. No mention of Iran taking down down American drones over Iran? Shia resistance to the American has always been much more hardhitting and efficient than rag-rag sunni ‘resistance’ to the west.Recommend
It is alarming to hear that Pakistan and Arabs fear Iranian Atom Bomb, but have no fear of Israeli Nuclear weapons. Israel openly bullies and kills Muslims in Palestine and Lebanon, and Iran is the only Islamic State which challenges Israel for its persecution. Israel easily defeated six Arab Islamic Countries in Arab-Israeli war, after which they subjugated to its supremacy, where as it was Iran backed Hezbollah guerilla war which drove the Israelis out of South Lebanon, and Israeli PM had to acknowledge defeat in Knesset (Israeli Parliament).Arabs must thank Iran for it
It is a fact that Iran is following certain policies which are against the interest of Arabs and Pakistan, but our hands are also not clean. Iran & Arabs are equally responsible for fuelling Shia-Sunni or Arab-Persian conflict. If Arabs find it justified to pursue their interests with force and aggression in Palestine, Lebanon, Iraq, Bahrain, Egypt, Syria, and Bahrain etc. Then Iran is also justified with what it is doing there. If all Arabs joined hands to crush the anti-King Shiite rebellion in Bahrain for which Pakistan also sent forces covertly, then how can they blame Iran for helping Bashar Al Asad crush the Arab & Western backed rebellion in Syria .Likewise if Pakistan is justified to pursue its objectives in Afghanistan, so Iran is also justified; if Pakistani threat perception justifies acquiring Nuclear Weapons covertly as a deterrent, so Iran is also justified acquiring them as it feels threatened from Israel and US
Pakistan with the help of Turkey can make efforts towards normalizing the Arab-Iranian relations. Arabs & Iran and also Pakistan & Iran must convince each other that they don’t have secret agendas against each other and come clean. Arabs should stop toeing the Western and Israeli agenda on Iran’s nuclear program. Arabs, Pakistan and Turkey can bring Iran to the table on nuclear issue and take assurance that its program is not against them, secretly Iran can tell them if its program is only as deterrence against Israeli Nuclear weapons. In this way Arabs and Pakistan can be satisfied.
In a latest development, excerpts from a recent internet news article
Iran propositions Saudis, seeks anti-US pact, offers nuclear cooperation
December 14, 2011, 12:22 PM (GMT+02:00)
“A large Iranian delegation led by Intelligence Minister Heidar Moslehi visited Riyadh Monday, Dec. 12 and put a proposition before Crown Prince Nayef bin Abdulaziz: Why not bury the Saudi Royal House’s historic feud with the Ayatollahs of Tehran”Recommend
Senseless approach towards a muslim brother country…..ET at its best(doing its covert job)Recommend
Ground Reality is that, Sunni and west are not fighting each other in Afghanistan,its Wahhabies and West. Sunni and Shia are peaceful and tolerant everywhere in the world. Sunnies, Shias Tajik Uzbik and common Pashtoons are just victim of this war. And also Its the Wahabbies(not Suunies) killing the fellow Muslims in Pakistan and in many other Muslim countries and attacking the security people in Pakistan(who are mostly Sunnies).
And its the Wahbbies(not the Sunnies) who are destroying schools and police stations and graveyards and Mosques in the beautiful land of Pakistan.
And yes Shia love this Godly gifted beautiful land known as Pakistan. Imposed Fasaad and Killing and bloodshed by Wahabbies can never turn them to go against thier own motherland. A great Sunni Alim even declared them as Kharaji those who are imposing this ruthless war on fellow Muslim brothers. Even few Wahabbi leaders now realizing that this is aimless war with no objectives, and nothing will come out from this except more and more destruction. All we can pray that Allah give them power of understanding. And About Syria West is going to do the same mistake as they did in Afghanistan they armed Wahhbies against Russia. Now they are problem for every human being. In the same way Syrian Wahabbies are going to be armed. Tomorrow west will again regret because Syrian Wahabies will turn in to a big problem for humanity same as Afghan Wahabies. And if Saudi and other Wahabi kings have billion trillion dollars, why not they built hospitals instead of every other month they are going in washington for their treatment sitting on wheel chairs.Recommend
@Gohar:
You actually think a nuclear bomb can be used in such a close poximity. Don’t be paranoid.Recommend
Salam..
I think Mr.Author… should keep his Knowledge intact …….
This paper is completely based on biases…In other words, Foreign Funded paper Work,most probably by the U.S.
This paper reflects the inner prejudice of the writer….
As about the sectarian issue,he said that Iran is supporting the shia community….Today,everyone knows who is supporting the fundamendalists in Pakistan…Saudi Arabia is the well-known promoter of extremism…
secondly,nuclear Iran is in Pakistan interest and it is Pakistan which has supported Iran’s national right of nuclear program on every forum..Thirdly,as to who told that Iran is producing a nuclear bomb??is there any evidence for that? If yes,then please share with us…On the Whole,that was a childish piece of Work..
Nawazish Orakzai..
RecommendCompletely agree witht the author. I myself being from Shia sect shares lot of commonalities witht the people of Iran, but being Pakistani is the top most. So from Pakistan’s standpoint, Pakistan should not jump into this mess, let the West handle it, lobbying against Iran would obviously annoy or even enrage them, and Pakistan already have enough adversaries in the region, but should give its silent aproval for any action limited to military and nuclear facilities. Pakistan should be the only country with This Power among the Islamic states. PeriodRecommend
@Shahzeb Shaikha:
Again rather then beating around the bush, How exactly is Iran’s nuclear ambitions a concern for us ?? If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it !! have enough problems of our own….
Iran is a sovereign country and has all the right in the world to peruse its nuclear ambition as it does not remotely affects us in any possible way, do you not get it ??… Have already suffered a lot fighting others wars, about time need to put our own interests on the table ahead of Yankees (Pak-Iran gas pipeline) * Hint *Recommend
I agree with the writer. Iran is an Ideological State with a predominant Shia majority. Its Ideology is in conflict with the Islamic Ideology of other Sunni States. Saudi Arabia has not made any bones about it. Iran continues to threaten the Kingdom and bring about strife to the Holiest of all Muslim shrines where nearly 2.5 million Muslims undoubtedly Sunni’s go for the Hajj , one of the Pillars of Islam.
Iran is like an Island surrounded by Ideological Sunni States. It feels threatened by the Islamic Resurgence especially in Afghanistan.It is afraid that with passage of time the moderates will take over. It is overbearing when it comes to supporting Shia factions in other Muslin States. The month of Muharram is when it shows its muscle by supporting Shia organizations all around the World in taking out Processions etc. In Pakistan itself we remain shutdown for ten days. The 9th & 10th Muharram the State is taken over by them.
Unfortunately those who talk about Wahabism etc have no knowledge of what they themselves are following.
The writer has correctly pointed out that a nuclear Iran is not in Pakistan’s interests. Considering that Iran’s regional interests do not align with those of Pakistan, a nuclear Iran has serious implications of greater belligerent behaviour, regional hegemony and bullying. Even though Pakistan is a nuclear state and any nuclear aggression towards us will be deterred, it would immensely reduce our leverage in relations with Iran—if any.
In case of a conflict with Iran & Saudia Arabia Pakistan will certainly fall with the lot of Saudi’s and will be drawn in a Nuclear War.The present Govt is planning to help Iran in its Nuclear Program which will be a great mistake.Recommend
@Shahzeb Shaikha:
Jinab there has been little discussion on this issue because a nuclear Iran is not a big issue for Pakistan’s interests in the way you have put it (and another comment above says the same). Since you asked for a few ‘intellectual’ points of argument, and not ones based on ummah or emotions etc then please consider some very real flaws in your article’s argument.
1) If you are accusing Iran of fanning sectarian flames and being ideologically inclined, why do you not mention our best friend Saudi Arabia (which is essentially a sunni version of shia Iran)?
2) Arms race in the Middle East began when Israel got its nukes and stopping Iran isnt going to stop that race since Turkey and KSA are already considering going nuclear. Turkey might eventually get to it sooner than Saudi Arabia coz Saudi Arabia are under USA’s thumb for the moment. So lets not blame Iran for a mideast arms race shall we?
3) Your very first argument is that Pakistan’s existing position of prestige as the only Islamic nuclear country will no longer stand if Iran also goes nuclear. To that I can only say that we have a very bloated superiority complex and are too self-important for our own good. The Islamic world today does not care and does not benefit from Pakistan’s nuclear weapons because Pakistan is at its weakest and most unstable in its history. As someone rightly pointed out before me, Saudi Arabians look down upon us even as we puff our chests and feel we are the guardians of everything linked to the ‘ummah’. Incidentally, if you are putting Islamic-civilization based arguments in ur article, why are you asking commentators to refrain from doing the same?
4) Strategically speaking then since you are a highly informed analyst – how many of our neighbours are we friends with? How many have we picked fights with? Our longest borders – the East and the West are hostile, why would anyone in their right mind create trouble in the south with a country which has not harmed us or our interests? Border security if nothing else, demands that we stop taking ‘pangay’ with our neighbours.
5) We provided (privately if not via formal channels) Iran with what their nuclear energy program needed and so, clearly the establishment does not feel threatened by Iran. Iran has never stood against our nuclear ambitions or even called for greater scrutiny etc of our nukes even though if it falls in the hands of wahhabis, they’re in real danger.
I think you need to sort out arguments and facts in an unbiased manner before writing a blog/article and then dismissing criticism as not being intellectual enough for your palate. Furthermore, Pakistan and Iran are energy partners and our economy is highly in need for stable energy supplies. If no other argument holds then do consider how rubbing Iran the wrong way could affect us economically.Recommend