Will Israel go to war?
From operations like the 1948 War of Independence to the Suez Crisis, from its great victory in Six Day War in 1967, to legendary action in Sinai during the Yom Kippur War, the Israelis have proved that they are the best at their job. The country has shown time and again that it is capable of doing the impossible for the security of their citizens.
One more thing which we observe is that for national security, the Israelis can even make sacrificial lambs of their allies. During the 1967 War with Egypt and Syria, the Israeli Air Force knowingly bombed the USS Liberty — an American surveillance ship — and blamed it on the Egyptians. The main idea was to garner US sympathies and an American response against Egypt and Arabs. After understanding the core values of Israeli strategic elite for Israeli security, now let’s have the look on prevalent strategic environment of the Middle East. There is an insurgency going on in Iraq, Lebanon and the Palestinian federation is in chaos. Egypt, Syria and Saudi Arabia are no match for Israel. Israel is the only nuclear power in the Middle East and has the largest stockpile of nukes after the US, Russia, China and France. In short, there is no rival to Israel and it’s the only predominant military power in the region. If Iran becomes a nuclear power, this prevailing scenario will change and Israel will lose its predominant position. Hamas and Hizbullah, which are allies of Iran, will become more aggressive and the operations of these organisations will become more bold and deadly, forcing Israel to negotiate with them on an equal basis. Syria will also get stronger as it is a major ally of Iran and committed to the Palestinian cause.
On the diplomatic front, Israel is trying to create consensus against Iran’s nuclear ambitions and trying to convince the US and Arab nations that a nuclear Iran will create trouble for them and could lead to an arms race in the Middle East. In addition to this, Israel is creating dissent within Iran. But one thing will be different this time around. If Israel does attack Iran, it will get a matching response and the whole region could go up in flames.
The views expressed by the writer and the reader comments do not necessarily reflect the views and policies of The Express Tribune.