Why PPP will be re-elected in 2013

Published: July 5, 2011

Purely based on the coverage they have, PPP would always win the highest seats in the National Assembly. PHOTO: PPI

For some reason, every four to five months, Pakistan’s politicians and media start talking about elections. Although everyone says they hope the government will complete its five year term, this does not stop them from making wild predictions about the upcoming elections, whenever they will be held.

Based on what I have observed, this is the harsh truth that the people will eventually come to terms with:  Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) is going to win the next elections.

Before you start sharpening your knives and take a run at me, logically think about the electoral map of Pakistan. In order to understand this better, we will take a look at each party separately.

Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N)

Since the 2008 elections, Mian Saab has been under the impression that it is only a matter of time before he comes back to power. He thinks all he has to do is wait five years and when the next elections take place he will be swept in to power once again, due to the super bad performance of the PPP government.

What Mian Saab has not factored into this plan is the fact that, in 1997, when he last won, he was supported by his own party, PML-Q and the ‘like minded’ group. This gave him better coverage across the country, in areas where he is traditionally not strong, such as Balochistan, Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa and Sindh. Since the division of the PML, PML-N holds Punjab and nothing else. They do not have enough strong candidates to make an impact in Balochistan and Sindh, while they can’t seem to even keep their seats in Abbottabad and Haripur. In addition to this, they have taken a serious beating in southern Punjab courtesy PML-Q and PPP, while their influence on the GT Road cities (Gujranwala to Jehlum) has also been waning.

As it stands, PML-N is having trouble holding down Punjab even though they currently have the majority. The whole good governance bit has fizzled out and the gigantic government expenditures have exposed the failings of the PML-N government. While back in 2008, they had serious support across the province, they now have to deal with the problems that come with being the incumbent party.

So, to say that PML-N can win the majority at the federal level is a bit far-fetched at this point. The best case scenario is to add about five more seats in the National Assembly and hold Punjab for another five years; even this seems hard for them to be honest.

Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid (PML-Q)

Lovingly called the qatil league during the 2008 elections, the PML-Q has bounced back from the days of depression and disappointment. Now that they are a part of the government and enjoying full privileges, they seem to be gearing up to draw a battle line in Punjab with their rivals, the PML-N.

The thing about PML-Q that most people tend to forget is that it is the only party in this country that is genuinely playing politics and enjoying every second of it. They are super flexible, excellent at making deals with anyone, can negotiate their way out of hell and have candidates who are strong in their areas. Even though PML-Q lost the elections in 2008, they managed to form the government in Balochistan while playing the opposition around the country.

PML-Q has safe seats – seats that party candidates are guaranteed to win, regardless of whatever happens. This puts PML-Q in the position of a king maker and after 2008 they have realised that is the role they will continue to play in the politics of Pakistan. So, they are not even aiming to win a majority, but instead are aiming to win 40 to 50 seats in the National Assembly that would allow them to continue playing their role.

Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM)

Although they are trying their level best to transform themselves into a national party, they have realised that their basic strength lies in Karachi and the 20 odd seats they hold in the National Assembly. As always, they will side with anyone who forms the government, and even though the PPP has been a challenge for them so far, they will continue to work with them if that means being in the government.

Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam-Fazal (JUI-F)

JUI-F is the only political party in Pakistan that knows its place in Pakistani politics. And, they tend to use this to their advantage all the time. As always, they will always side with the government and if they are lucky they will win 20 to 30 seats in the National Assembly, assuming the Awami National Party (ANP) continues whatever its doing in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa.

Awami National Party (ANP)

Being a region specific party, they will ally with anyone in power, just like MQM. So effectively, they have no serious issues with who actually wins the majority in the National Assembly.

Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI)

Regardless of what people say about PTI and Imran Khan, it is not going to sweep into power. It’s not like I have a magic 8-ball that is telling me that; it is based on certain political realities of Pakistan that most people who support PTI and Imran Khan tend to forget all too easily.

1. PTI has a serious issue with finding candidates who are strong enough in their areas to run for elections. By this I do not mean that they cannot find anyone to be their candidate; the issue is finding someone who has a strong backing from within the area.

2. People tend to vote for someone who gets their things done on a regular basis. Most people in a constituency seriously do not give a crap about what is being done in other places; they have more immediate concerns such as roads, hospitals, schools, gas and electrical connections and most importantly, jobs. This inherently means that the person who will end up getting votes will have to flex their political muscles to accommodate the people who voted for them by whatever means necessary. This is something PTI has been staunchly against as they see it as corruption as well as misuse of power. Although their ideas are noble, this also means that they cannot accommodate the people who voted for them.

3. PTI has a strong message in urban areas, while in rural areas it still has a lot of ground to cover. They have a good message but they have to battle it out with established candidates which is extremely hard to do, as they lack the candidates to put up a strong challenge.

But even with these issues, the best case scenario for PTI is to maybe get about 30 seats in mostly urban areas. This is not enough by long shot to form a government.

Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP)

PPP is probably the most hated party right now in the country, courtesy their poor style of governance and their age old technique of always playing the victim. But, even with this sort of heavy baggage, it is a party that has the most coverage. They have a strong standing in Sindh, some standing in southern Punjab, for some reason they have strong candidates in Balochistan and they just ally with whoever wins in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa.

Purely based on the coverage they have, PPP would always win the highest seats in the National Assembly. Let me repeat this: it is not due to their good governance or anything; it’s just that they are really spread out. Even in the worst case scenario, they would still have more seats in the National Assembly than any other party in Pakistan.

Apart from coverage, they have one more advantage that is not mentioned enough – their vote bank is rock solid while their opposition’s vote bank has fractured over time. This can be observed from the example of results of major constituencies in Punjab:

Sialkot NA 111

Name Party Votes
Dr Firdous Aashiq Awan PPP 77,834
Chaudhry Amir Hussain PML-Q 45,704
Adrees Bajwa PML-N 38,589

Vehari NA 168

Name Party Votes
Aseem Daultana PPP 49,172
Ishaq Khan Khakwani PML-Q 47,898
Tehmina Daultana PML-N 26,413

Rawalpindi NA 51

Name Party Votes
Raja Pervaiz Ashraf PPP 80,221
Raja Qasim Javed PML Q 71,488
Chaudhry Muhammad Riaz PML N 56,332

Although these are just three examples, a detailed study of the elections results shows that this is the trend overall. Since the PML vote bank is split between N and Q, PPP gets the benefit and wins even though their vote bank is way below the total PML one in various areas. Add to this the seat adjustment that PPP will have with PML-Q next time around and you end up with PPP picking up seats where they are not really too strong.

So based on these scenarios, even if Pakistan did have an election within the next three months, we would end up with the same government.

What most people refuse to understand is that a democracy, which Pakistan is slowly becoming, works through negotiations and political deal making that normally result in coalition governments. There is no way that one party can win an outright majority and form a single party government.

PML-N and PTI might believe that they can sweep the elections but the ground realities are very different from their assumptions. For PTI, it would also mean that they have to work with MQM, ANP, and probably PML-N or PML-Q, all of which are parties PTI has called various names such as qatil, corrupt, dhokay baaz and so on.

So, for all practical purposes, we are stuck with a government similar to the one we have had for a long time. At least until Mian Saab figures out that he needs to form coalitions and work with others on equal terms if he ever wants to form the government.

Adnan.rasool

Adnan Khalid Rasool

Currently the Deputy Executive Director Center for Enterprise, Trade and Development, Adnan is also a political analyst working mainly on electoral politics and political campaign management. He tweets at @adnanrasool

The views expressed by the writer and the reader comments do not necessarily reflect the views and policies of The Express Tribune.

  • Rehan

    PPP Zindabad! We want a secular Pakistan, that works to eradicate poverty. That is the PPPs mission, and that is why I support it. Recommend

  • parvez

    The analysis seems incomplete without at least a mention of the ‘hidden hand’ or do you think they are too busy fighting the ” war on terror ” ?Recommend

  • Hataf!!

    its not about PPP being right wrong corrupt or angle-like. its about reality which this blog clearly defines. PPP has poorly governed the country but played politics well. However do we hav another option other than secular PPP which has given lives when it came to Blasphemy Law. they hav also garnered the support of the army which in my opinion is a good thing. Recommend

  • Usman Saeed

    @Rehan Secular Pakistan huh, well you can start with making sure that justice is served to who killed Salman Taseer. However as PPP has done everything in its power to disown him, with Mr. Zardari not even coming to his funeral, it just shows how secular the party is. If you ask me just a bunch of opportunists waiting to further plunder this unfortunate country.
    But i agree these plunderers will once again get the chance to plunder further. Sigh.Recommend

  • Shahid Khan

    For a Pakistan free of terror and extremists, PPP is inevitable. As of Imran Khan, I would prefer to vote for Mullah Omer or Haqani rather than voting for Imran. Nawaz would loose Punjab if free and failr elections are ensured. In that case PPP might get simple majority. Despite war on terror, party’s performance has been excellent. We are with Zardari against Mullah and terrorists. Long Live Bhuttoism.Recommend

  • Asad

    Insightful analysis, but you assume that ‘power’ still lies primarily in the national assembly. In the post-18th amendment and post-7th-NFC-award scenario, the provincial assemblies have also become powerhouses. Some would argue that an outright majority in the Punjab would put the PML-N in a stronger position than a weak PML-N coalition in the center would. You’re right in that the PPP is the only truly ‘national’ party based on historic electoral analysis, but we need to consider the extent to which that matters in the present scenario. Recommend

  • http://theselongwars.blogspot.com TLW

    All I can say is, excellent political analysis. Very few Pakistanis go for empiricism, and it was a pleasure to read someone who worked with an evidence based anlytical technique.Recommend

  • saud

    i second u Rehan…@Rehan: Recommend

  • First drink, don’t think

    @Rehan: You are a true Jiala man!

    I don’t agree with writer on the MQM thing, MQM is truely a national party in a sense that none of their elected persons are from any rich family and all the politicians which were blamed or disqualified for the fake degrees none of them belonged to MQM.

    As far as Balochistan is concerned, that province is politically impotent. Unlike in other three provinces candidates take party tickets contest elections and come to assemblies, in Balochistan, they win, they see who is in the power in center and what’s the best way to get any ministry and then they execute their plan. Parties of Baloch leaders really don’t matter.

    The problem lies in our people. They just don’t think about the country. To them their linguistic identity is far more precious then their national identity of being a Pakistan. PPP has played the Hazara and Siraiki cards and they will for sure do any surprising moves through which they can get votes from these areas. Is Hazara and Siraiki provinces are formed, then we will have 6 provinces fighting for rights instead of 4.

    ANP would be looking for some new things, just in case they come in power in 2013. To an educated pakhtoon it won’t matter the place he lives in is called NWFP or KPK or simply “Wali Khan-abad”.

    Fazlu will be in government in any case unless the party in power is at daggers drawn with Mr. Swati, the chief financer of Fazlu’s party.

    Imran Khan, even 30 to 40 seats will be bonus for Imran Khan! But the problem with Imran Khan is he is just too educated and his agenda is just too prosperous for such an educated and under developed people. So seeing him in power will be a surprise. Plus he hasn’t yet pointed out who will be his team member, in case he really comes in power. E.g. who will be his finance head?Recommend

  • Kazmi

    despite their incompetance and everything .. i will still go for ppp … cuz i think they are still least harmful as compared to Pmnl and mqmRecommend

  • Zubair

    @Rehan

    PPP as a party is more Islamist than Jamatis themselves. It was Bhutto who made Pakistan “Islamic Republic”,It was bhutto who braded certain minority as heretic,It was bhutto who started jihad in Afghanistan even before Zia ul Haq,It was bhutto who brought ISI into politics to counter his opponents. It was a sindhi Bhutto who is responsible for killings of 15,000 Balochs in Balochistan operation of 1970′s. It was Bhutto who started to spread Pakistan;s tentacles in Afghanistan.

    Not to forget,even “Shaheed” Salman Taseer was Islamist since SSP stalwarts always used to attend PPP convention in Jhang. Hence PPP is more Islamist than anyone else in Pakistan.Recommend

  • Zubair

    Just that you know,PML-N is VERY strong in Balochistan and as far as KPK is concerned,PML-N is still a major force especially in Hazara division.

    for 2008 elections,PPP got votes due to BB-sympathy. But PML-N will be ready for 2013. The reason ? PML-N through Marri-Khosa-jamali baloch connection will be in a better position to actually oust every other party in Balochistan. Not to forget Bugtis and Mengals do not even trust zardari and PPP anymore,have hoped Nawas sharif can get Balochs out of trouble so much so Khair Buxx Marri’s own son Mir Changez Marri have joined PML-N. Also retired general Abdul Qadir baloch on PML-N Ticket is even ELECTED from balochistan. Cometh 2013,I hope PPP dont get back in power but even if they do 2/3rd majority is impossible and PML-N is in a better position for balochistan.

    Even for Sindh , people like Imdad Chandion,Ghous shah are major game players – Not to forget thatta’s very own Shirazis may join PML-N as well since they have been left out by Chaudhrys.Also,the “lotas” in Q league will eventually join PML-N which is a FACT !!Recommend

  • A

    I hope PPP fulfills the 5 year term so that PTI has time to build a network in rural areas. Candidates from other parties are thinking about joining PTI and many will after seeing the forecasts in 12 months time….Recommend

  • Realist.

    no one can sweep these elections.
    the best case for pml n is to get simple majority & they will get that Insha’allah. but for that they’ll have to give a green signal to those members of pmlq who’re willing to join pmln.

    rest the case of Pti.
    i bet they cannot get more than 5 seats. thats the best pti can do.Recommend

  • Azka

    @Rehan

    Where the hell have you been the past four years?Recommend

  • Muhammad Abdul Rehman

    one thing the writer has forgot is that now peoples party has totaly become an “establishment” partyRecommend

  • http://faisalarshad.wordpress.com faisal arshad

    What about the naughty player in Pakistan politics…Its a long time since the uniformed politicians (the military) stepped into the ring!Recommend

  • salman

    totally agreed !Recommend

  • zia ur rehman

    GOSH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! i dont know why some people forgets that we have no genuine democracy in our country and we have no independent election commission and electoral process is a big fraud!!!!!!!! recent report of 46 % bogus votes is a solid proof of it. PPP can only win next elections (probably this year) if this fraudulent process continues, but if an independent election commission is formed under the supervision of supreme court and electronic voting machine are introduced, then there is no one stopping PTI to form next govt. And it is the fact that imran khan is the most popular leader in the country and politicians from other parties are also joining PTI with a rapid pace……… revolution is imminent!!!!!! GO I.K!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Recommend

  • Nadeem Ahmed

    Very scary but interesting article. One thing I did not understand that when all party position will remain as is, from where Imran is going to get those 30 odd seats. In my humble opinion Imran will not get more than 5 seats. On other thirty seats his candidates will save their Zamanat and that will be considered great victory for PTI and justification to his claim to throne. Recommend

  • zia ur rehman

    @Rehan………. PPP has a corrupt leadership and is doing politics in name of “BHUTTO”. It is kind of a family business, who considers putting a name of “BHUTTO” in front of any scumbag as an essential step to continue it’s politics. It has no clear agenda other than to survive for fife years. It’s corrupt leadership considers washington as a savior and a ladder to reach the top (wiki-leaks and NRO). it has come into power with 46% bogus votes and NRO tainted “2008 elections”. It’s corrupt leadership does not pay any taxes and has foreign unnamed assets worth billions in dollars. and bla bla bla!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Recommend

  • Junaid

    PPP Zindabad. i like them due to same reasons and hate others because of extreme views and narrow mindednessRecommend

  • faraz

    Nice analysis. But I think PTI won’t get more than 5 seats and all seats will come from urban areas of upper Punjab. PTI’s main rival is PMLN rather than PPP. Both PTI and PMLN are right wing parties whose voter is concerned about qaumi ghairat. While PPP mainly gets vote from the poor sections of the society. In urban areas of upper Punjab, it’s mainly a battle between different right wing parties. I think PTI should adjust seats with PPP, JI and PMLQ against PMLN. If PTI allies itself with PMLN, it will only remain a junior partner, just like JI of the 90s. Recommend

  • Saad Saleem Mengal

    This is PPP that this country is still going, or else there shall be no democracy what so ever. Every other party makes the country suffer and re election on re election occurs.

    I aint saying that Our President is the best, but the Party behind him is! :)Recommend

  • anonymous

    They will win because they are supported by people who control this region..simply.Recommend

  • Rabia

    really interesting analysis.

    here’s the thing, both PML-N and MQM have this weirdly complacent sense of entitlement – they are each essentially regional parties that considers itself entitled to the whole of Pakistan. Their strength is that they are very closely aligned to the interests of their core voters, they need to make very few compromises between actions and words unlike the PPP which is forever being forced to retract something or compromise on something else. But this secure comfort zone of core voters, combined with their sense of entitlement is also PML-N and MQM’s greatest weakness when it comes to expanding out of their core base without the help of the establishment. Recommend

  • kashif manzoor

    ppp is doing great service to the people in understanding the predatory nature of filthy democracy. I wish ppp wins the next elections which would be a beginning of an end of this damned democracy. I am really looking forward to it.Recommend

  • zia ur rehman
  • Rehan

    Yeah, I’ll agree that our President isn’t the best, but the PPP is by far the only decent party in Pakistan. It has true secular values, maintains good relationship with Pakistan’s neighbours (Iran and India), is democratic, has support in every section of the country unlike other regional parties, promotes welfare (Income support program), keeps good relations with the West, and is hard on the extremists. What more could you ask for? :)

    P.S: I’m a sophomore at Stanford (undergrad), NOT a jiyala! But I do support the PPP. :)
    P.S.2: For everyone saying the PPP is corrupt, the Army’s top brass is 100 times more corrupt. They just know how to run a good propaganda campaign.Recommend

  • Affan

    Zinda hai Bibi Zinda hai !!
    Geo Bhutto !! :-PRecommend

  • Zoaib

    I don’t think anybody can claim to predict what will happen in the next general election as it’ll be held in conditions which weren’t there in any of the elections before in Pakistan. An active judiciary, a very vibrant media and a very deep despondency of the people in ALL political parties in the government. Couple that with the massive amount of 3 million + fake votes which have just been removed and another 3 million + youth votes added, can you be serious about what COULD happen in the next elections? The tide can turn to any side at all. Stranger things have happened in Pakistan you know. I’m still rooting for a clean sweep by PTI! Recommend

  • http://[email protected] D. Asghar

    @Adnan Bhai, it seem like you spoke my mind. Excellent analysis. In poltics, pragmatism and ground realities cannot be ignored. No matter what. PPP may not be best, but as one of my Professor once said long time ago, “when you go to polls, you go through a process of elimination. You vote for the one, who will fulfill your personal goals.”

    All the rhetoric and emotional jingoism aside, the reality is what cannot be ignored. Politics is a game and people who know it well, can play. The rest stay on the sidelines, yak a lot, but cannot get much done. The key element in the election is the “electability.” Right and spot on analysis.Recommend

  • Samir

    I must be confused. I thought the ISI and military would continue to run Pakistan regardless of who wins the election. Please help enlighten me.Recommend

  • Hassan

    Strong wordsRecommend

  • Ali Tipu

    As much as I hate to imagine this being true, I would say it is. I am now led to believe that NOTHING can change the fate of this country which is now in shambles, becoming more and more alien to the words like civilized, prosperous and justice. And that’s something which is not by fate, not by destiny , but truly by choice. Its the ‘choice’ the defines anyone and PPP (the gang of thugs and looters) is the choice of the country which, then, off course defines Pakistan and its people. Recommend

  • http://ykhan.wordpress.com Yasser

    Firstly Whatever, secondly if PPP comes into power again, i won’t mind Army man like Musharraf taking over whose era bring massive development in Pakistan. PPP, their policies, their style of governance, their corruption and most of all their leadership is shame for all the Pakistanis.Recommend

  • Mirza

    This is the best analysis i have read in a long time, and I have high standards! Thanks for being honest and objective not emotional and hateful like many. Here is my take on this issue:
    PML-N has had it chance and it blew it this time. They kept blackmailing the PPP govt and forced it to ally itself with the PML-Q. Mullah Fazal and regional parties like PML-N were continuously blackmailing the govt till it got its numbers with the help of Q.
    PML-N is going through a crisis and both Sharifs are desperate to make friends. Looks like they have no principles anymore and they are willing to form an alliance even with Lucifer. After the electoral alliance of PPP and Q, Sharif are not going to get the same number of seats as they have now. Their only strength is urban Punjab where they would have to slug it out with PTI. They are the same type of rightwing Islamists parties which are close to JI. In fact if PTI forms an alliance with JI, NS would lose even the urban upper Punjab. Both PTI and PML-N do not have much presence in Sind and they would not win a single seat on their own. I do not recall Sharif winning any elections without the rightwing alliance supported by the ISI. PML-N is now in its weakest form than ever before, with many factions. They keep talking about corrupt govt, however, they are ruling most of the Pakistan themselves. With devaluation they cannot play this card in the next elections.
    As a matter of fact no party in Pakistan is secular so we have to choose the lesser of the evils. PPP is the only party which is not as reactionary as many others. Its voter bank is solid and surprisingly the alliance with ANP and Q would increase its votes and seats. PPP can even win a few more seats in Sind where Q has a presence. In KP, where Zardari is a hero of many ANP politicians, PPP can sweep the polls with ANP. This partnership may even help gain some seats from Karachi!
    Pakistan is not a homogeneous nation. It is several nations and there is only one truly a national party. The rest are regional and patchy. The writer is correct about the lack of good candidates for PTI. I honestly do not know any other name except IK. Having a established constituency is very important in a democracy to win elections. Kennedys had their safe seats for decades. Al Gore’s father (senior) was a senator from TN and the son took over his seat. Indira Gandhi had a safe seat at Rai Bareli, and so on. PTI and Mush both have this problem that they do not have any safe seats.
    You have not touched the two important issues. The senate is elected by the provincial assemblies and PML-N has very few seats there. Even after the next elections they would not make their presence felt in the senate for several successful elections. Most of the senate seats held by Mullah Fazal and Q would go to PPP next year. In addition, the president is not going to be voted out easily, due to PPP’s national presence.
    Thanks for a great analysis, regards,
    MirzaRecommend

  • dont care who comes who goes

    @Zubair:
    Please man Grow up
    that was past i think you forgot the east Pakistan Incident
    it was Bhutto who runs after power and illegally want to become the Prime minister
    at that time the rule was which party wins the most seats will make the government.Recommend

  • shoaib mir

    Add to that the fact that PPP is the only anti-Establishment party to have won general elections six times in the past – 1970, 1977, 1988, 1993, 2002 and 2008 – mostly against heavy odds. They were the incumbent party only in 1977 when they truly swept but were not allowed to reap the fruits of their victory by a military junta that admitted in its intelligence reports the PPP would have won anyways had there been no rigging in a few constituencies – that btw seems to be a norm in developing democracies. Now PPP is once again the incumbent party but for the first time without the tag of anti-Establishment! Recommend

  • meena gabeena

    they will win because we will vote for them like we did previously :)Recommend

  • Irshad Khan

    Yes PPPP will be the winners in the next elections as the best propagandists, best exploiters, best liers are with them. Most of sardars, peers, Jagirdars are also with them. They are a team of most indisciplined persons and can say or do anything which suits to them to win sympathies or favour of the people. We, Pakistanis, are very sympathetic to effected or mazloom and thus our money and votes are for them. No other party pays back or rewards to its party-men as PPPP in form of employment, promotions, foreign tours, luxurious life, Pajeros etc. and many other ways to make money and status, rather heaps of wealth. If every body can not be made minister he will be appointed as an advisor to any body and given full authority and control over systems/bureaucracy/police. This time, with lot of cleverness, they have won sympathies of army too, which is again a big plus point. Further, our masters have always been supporters for them, as they serve them better than anybody, and you know this is greatest plus point to remain in the government and continue to rule. No other party has yet gained so much favour and confidence of masters. In this situation who will win elections is not difficult to analyse as other parties are not so much capable and clever. Recommend

  • http://www.habibies.com Habibies

    Always a big shame on PPP :(Recommend

  • hakeem zardari

    this analyst over-estimates the importance of pml-q. the truth is pml-q is non-existant and it will be wiped out and pml-n will emerge as victorious. Recommend

  • Bilal

    Very well written blog. I completely agree with Adnan Khalid. Our country is unfortunately divided into different regions on basis of ethinicity on political map and there is no other party but PPP that has vote bank in various ethinic regions. Otherwise the rest of the parties represent only a specific ethinic group or city. We are seriously lacking a leader who represents all four provinces.Recommend

  • Naveed Nasim

    PPP going to win next election not because of their poor performance in their tenure, its because of the split of votes among PML-N, PML-Q and PTI. If PML-Q and PML-N will have an alliance than there are chances of having their government next time BUT it seems very difficult due to the stubbornness of Sharif Brothers… Recommend

  • Sadia Salam

    Its a very interesting and informative article. Very humbly, I would like draw the attention towards the fact that Party is now being controlled by Mr. Zardari, who is a street smart man and knows how to manipulate things which is evident from the fact that PPP never had this kind of control even during the tenure of Mr Bhutto and I strongly believe he knows how and when to twist arms to gather support. Even a strong man like Mr. Musharraf was not able to handle media and judiciary whereas Mr. Zardari has literally cornered them.Recommend

  • Dani

    I agree with the writer. PPP is going to win the next elections.Recommend

  • Naveed Nasim

    The writer has missed another important party APML of Pervaiz Musharraf who is claiming to have many seats in next elections. I know APML hardly have vote bank but can have the support of the Army in the elections SO also include that party…Recommend

  • booooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

    @Rehan: childish…u support ppp for eradicating poverty….wow….Recommend

  • http://blogs.tribune.com.pk/author/202/adnan-rasool/ Adnan Rasool

    @D. Asghar:

    Thanks for your comments.. We have this serious issue of always being in denial as a Nation. We always love talking and saying things which seem right to us while forgetting that the rest of 180 Million people in this country have a voice as well. Half the people who often criticize anything political are people who have never voted! But for those who vote, vote us ko jata hai jo kaam karata hai! Simple! Ppl ask why ppl like Jamshed Dasti win elections, thats because they get things done in their areas. That is something the urban youth choose not to understand for some reason.Recommend

  • http://www.twitter.com/yasiiiboy Yasir Khokhar

    The only reason why I back this government to complete 5 years is that, we need to develop a culture where the elected government, serves for the assigned period. The sustainability of the policies depends on the sustainability of the government.

    Rest, whose next and whose not is a different question. One should give credit to PPP for taking along the opposition, no matter if it was seen as a source of saving their govt. But the culture has been induced at least

    In next election for sure PPP is going to lead with seats, but still would require coalition to form government. However it would be interesting to see how PTI turns out to be. ANP, MQM and JUI would still be in similar position, as they can’t get any better then that. Recommend

  • Muzammil

    In Democracy their is no solution .. You see democracy is going to fall like the socialism and capitalism … Khilfat (Shariat is the only solution specially in Pakistan) as it was the basis of Pakistan (La Illa ha ill Allah) therefore it must be enforced
    and for those who believe in secular Pakistan than please change the constitution first Recommend

  • AQEEL AHMED

    Asalam o alaikum. PMLN is better than other political parties. PMLN is good political party. Mian Nawaz Sharif is great leader. Insha Allah PMLN will won the election. but pmln need to make allience with Jammat e Islami and other right political parties.Recommend

  • Ishrat Salim

    Guys,guys…guys…I think you all are from good rich, elite background….?? & hence,do not expect change & looking forward to continuing of loot & plunder of this country…but remember…by the time PPPs term nears end….nothing of this country will remain intact…?? & you can ALL go whistling…?? think of change if you all guys want this country to remain as an independent & sovereign state….otherwise, you all will be responsible for the country`s destruction & Allah swt will never forgive you…& history will remember each of you by name….Recommend

  • Jiyala

    PPP=Unified Pakistan!Recommend

  • Saad Durrani

    Just like the way they swindled AJK elections, 2013 will not be a different story unless the establishment wants something else.Recommend

  • Abdullah Suleman

    @Saad Saleem Mengal:
    @Kazmi:
    lol a big laugh at ur coment.. do u people really know what actually democracy is ?
    ya i know for PPP dealing with other parties to form govt is democracy, nominating ur child and grand child and their grand child as party leaders, president or prime minister is democracy, keep on supporting corruption and involved in it from President to Minister nd from MNA to MPA is democracy, in 4 years no major project no single step for betterment nd development of this country and still arguing on performance of past govt criticizing that, this is called democracy and this is the defination of Pakistan People’s Party.. (PPP) this is not People’s Party its Fudal’s party or infact it should be named as Family Party and also include all other family members also which are yet to be born nd nominate them as future president ….Recommend

  • Kashif

    Being a PPP supporter I tend to agree with the article except for the part where it states that “PPP is probably the most hated party right now in the country”. Isn’t this statement self contradictory especially in the context of this article? If we watch the ‘political actors’ in the talk shows then may be yes but if we follow the logic of this article then certainly not. Because if a party is expected to come into power through elections, it certainly cannot be the most hated party by the majority of voters.

    But the few good things about the current political scenario are:

    PML(N) or is it PML(M) (M for Molvi), pun intended, has been forced to give up its so called principled read arrogant and isolationist stance to now desperately try to embrace the ‘political untouchables’ of yesterday.
    If Mian Sb. can taste the humble pie of attempting to mend fences with MQM why can he not do the same with PPP, whose sins (according to him) should be far less than those of MQM and JUI(F).
    The viciousness of the right wing propaganda has become so evident. They will curse the people voting for PPP or malign the army for merely being neutral. Even all the recent support for the honorable Chief Justice would evaporate if he just tries to play neutral for a change.
    PPP support base has remained intact despite the best efforts of jokers like Ansar Abbasi, Hamid Mir, Kamran Khan, Shahid Masood et al.

    So I would request those who object to PPP not having democracy within itself to learn to respect the voice of the people and then go through the trouble of discussing democracy.Recommend

  • Ch Allah Daad

    I know one thing, even PPP does not win one seat but you give Mr.Zardari free hand for 72 hours, he will form PPP government. No politician is 10 percent of Zardari’s abilities. For Imran, my request to him is, please stay away from politics, its not your cup of tea. Except those JI lads, who did not get anything in JI are following you and are making you fool. All others come to see a terrorist supporter.Recommend

  • http://www.facebook.com M.Sethi

    The analysis and the verdict are unrealistic! As they are solely based on the success and failure story of the 2008 elections which in fact were held under a dictator’s rule and his pre-negotiated agreement with political forces. In short whatever the result came out, it was not due to the popular electorate’s votes, rather manipulated and rigged by the establishment. More or less the elections were only held to wipe out the uniformed version/stigma rule to a change over to a democratic set-up.

    The, two mainstream party leader’s that of PPP and Muslim League-N who were living in exile away from the country for many years, respectively. Both in fact were brought back into the political arena under certain pre-set conditions, promises and according to a game plan!

    That the PML-Q, which was the Kings party and ruling the roost was downsized, but at the same time retained in sufficient strength to balance the power sharing formula which had been probably been worked out by the establishment managing the whole game plan.

    The author,has not taken into account that the whole idea right from the start was,not to allow a clean sweep to any particular party and lead the results to form a coalition government, which could be easily controlled and managed by the king at that time, Gen Musharraf. Also it must be borne in mind that few other parties’s such as the right wing JI and Imran Khan, PTI had boycotted the elections and this time around they are bound to participate in the future elections in full strength.last bit not least,there are bound to be some electioneering alliance’s formed and could bring in major upset in the complete political scenario…Though the PPP should keep it’s hopes high,but would be advisible not on the basis of this analysis by the author.Cheers.Recommend

  • Azfar

    You can never predict next elections, what i can see, is that the deep state is doing further more polarization. You can see, Mush APML, SHAH MEMOOD Q, DR MUJTABA, etc being planted ,

    However saying that it would be easy to take Punjab from Mia Brothers , is just an overstatement. We witness that Shahbaz was ready to even compromise Chief Justice, in wikileaks, but the moment they got disqualified, they showed you their muscle in Punjab..

    Zardari no doubt is a wiser politician , but he doesn’t realize that MQM & ANP were his both legs, where as PML Q is just a Monkey which is on his back, and can Jump at any minute.

    Senate elections would tell , better in coming days.

    60 years out of which 40 years we were a defense state ruled by Military. Democratic process takes time , we cant compare ourselves to US or UK. They also have history of civil wars etc.

    Once this democratic process is on the flow, all parties would be filtered with good people. We can see good politicians in every party of Pakistan. But it will take time…

    18th Amendment & now the provincial autonomy are real challenges for PPP. Similarly Rich must be tax ,if we want a free aid country.Recommend

  • Hinah

    @Rehan:
    Even though they don’t do anything towards it? I say I stand for the eradication of poverty, education of masses and liberation of women & their rights – will you vote for me too?Recommend

  • Arslan

    We need an Army coup ;)Recommend

  • dextor

    Nice work gentlemen….but if still PPP wins then it means people of pakistan have written thier dead sentence with thier own hand…..because they not gonna find food, electricity and other things….Recommend

  • narejo

    Very intelligent analysis. Nice piece of workRecommend

  • Fahad Raza

    @Jiyala:
    Hmm right have you heard the the famous sentence “tum udher hum idher” Told to east Pakistanis by BHUTTO.. Oh you were now even thought of then..??Recommend

  • CB Guy

    97 repeat is gonna take place, PML-N may not win everything but definitely PPP will be uprooted. Recommend

  • Hassan Bokhari

    PPP truly is the best party for this country and always has been. People do not understand that solving the current issues our country faces cannot be done in a matter of years. After facing nearly 30 plus years of useless and extremely harmful dictatorship, it is simply not possible to fix everything overnight, the steps are being taken, and it will take at the least a decade to bring back things to normal.

    Our media plays the worst role as they only portray the wrong side of an image and never the right. It would be useless to go into depth on this matter, but most people would understand what i am trying to say, if they have any sense in them. Recommend

  • Hassan Bokhari

    @AQEEL AHMED:
    hahaha great reasoning skills.Recommend

  • Atif

    Agreed with the analysis that PPP would get the majority in next elections, though very unfortunate for this nation to elect loots, incompetents and corrupts like PPP, PML-N, PML-Q and ANP be brought again. PTI and MQM show promise of honesty and prosperity but We are too weak to understand the meaning and purpose of elections, specially in rural areas.Recommend

  • khurram

    long live PMLN .the only party that will take us to the path of prosperity.

    All other including Imran khan are crap commodities.Recommend

  • http://blogs.tribune.com.pk/author/202/adnan-rasool/ Adnan Rasool

    Thank you all for your feedback… I realize that a number of you will disagree with what I have to say.. but well that is your opinion and respect that completely… As for people wishing for a PML N win.. I am a PML N supporter.. I have been a supporter since 1995.. And I am not afraid to accept that my party has disappointed me in the last few years due to the things they have done…

    For PTI supporters.. You guys have great spirit.. please name me the constituencies you think you can genuinely win… I would love to know what seats you are certain to win… Do remember that it took Imran khan 2 tries to win his own seat… and he was running from 6 seats… ended up winning one… so would love to know the answer to that question…

    Please do give me more of your feedback.. Its always nice to get a good critiqueRecommend

  • Muhammad Younas Ansari

    PPP won AJK elections and its joke on people,s trust and
    if win in all Pakistan it will be super joke and PPP will face anger of Youth Generation and will destroy itself, Better for PPP and Allies in Punjab and Mqm , keep a distance from people in coming elections so they can save their poletical Life , in case of Rigging and Winning , there will be another Powerful movement in Pakistan , Like it happened in 1977.
    Jobless youth and old people, and familes without Gas in home and Motorcycle Rider with out petrol and CNG supply failure and failed administration are more than Negative points for PPP and CO in coming Election ,s and what happened in Mian wali, You saw , that is Trailer of coming days.Recommend

  • Taimoor

    Mark these words if anyone other than Imran Khan gets elected, Pakistan as a country is done for as simple as that. But knowing my people they’d rather have a president who is an ex-prisoner than a honest loyal person. These next elections are truly a life and death situation for Pakistan sad nobody realizes that. Recommend

  • Taimoor

    @Ishrat Salim:
    Agree with you 100%. Any sane country would realize that a crossroads have been reached but we rather kill ourselves then let go what our daddys taught us. These people are going to drown taking along the country with it.Recommend

  • http://Australia Naeem

    @Muzammil

    Could Khilafat save Islamic Empire after the assassination of Hazrat Ali? Is there any peaceful and harmonious procedure of transfer of Power in Khilafat other then assassination followed by political turmoil and chaos?

    If you look into history Khilafat always ended-up on tyranny or monarchy. Recommend

  • Ahsan

    Nice consolidation of information by Adnan.

    I would like to add a few facts that Adnan missed out.

    a) The re-election of incumbents like PPP (or even PML N/Q) heavily depends on fake votes they manage to pull out. Why I say that is becuase Supreme Court in accordance with Election Commission declared 3.5 Krorr votes (35 Million) fake just a few days ago.

    b) Guess what was the number of total votes in 2008 General Elections 3.4 Krore (3.4 Million). I am not saying that every vote was fake – but most of them were.

    c) About 35 Million votes are not registered according to NADRA i.e. the youth turning 18 every year since 2001. Imagine, when registered, how they can change the picture by supporting someone genuinely.

    The picture Adnan presented is factual but half-complete and very grim. Our salvation lies in reduction of bogus voting and active participation by youth in voting. Even if party like PTI gets 25-30% of seats in Parliament then guess the impact they have in voting-off non-sense bills and law making decisionsRecommend

  • d2412412

    Lol anyone supporting PPP here is not facing problems due to Unemployment , hungry crying children , loadshedding , Inflaltion or any other problem for that matter. Recommend

  • http://www.facebook.com/piraliraza Pir Ali Raza

    Even though a grim reality, this column is spot on in its political analysis. I would suggest you should take this as your day job. Recommend

  • True Face Of Pakistan

    “Humne apne baap dada ko aisa hi kerte dekha he”
    Shame on you, you dumb headed votersRecommend

  • Aslam khan VA

    PTI Chairman Imran Khan congratulate Chief Justice Iftekhar Chaudhry on historic decision and the whole nation on path to transparent election , bogus votes been removed million of new voter will register , youth must get NADRA cards and register for VOTE , INQALAB will come through new VOTE.Recommend

  • http://www.facebook.com/mobileprotection#!/mshehryar Muhammad Shehryar

    I have nothing against any party. But the ppl who run it. I dont know, how can we trust the current president to run the country when I wount even trust him to run my business. OK democracy is about politics, but is politics always dirty politics? We put everything under the umbrella of Politics saying oh that happens in politics. We yet have to see that with politics something good can come out for the people aswell.
    Mr President Bush???? is that what Mr Gilani called the US president during that press conference??? did you guys see the smirk on the president’s face???
    We just dont need politics to run the country we need smart people to run the country. All I have seen PPP doing in the past 3 years is running PPP, not pakistan. They have so many issues of their own (starting with chief Justice fiesco then NRO, MQM ) when have they actually run the government. Its unfortunate but the writer is 100 percent correct PPP will win the next elections, and yes what ever is happening in the country we deserve it, because this is how we vote. When Pakistan was formed, the first NGO Fatima Jinnah created had the objective to spread democratic awareness among the masses. People need to understand the power of their vote. Just look at the presidential debates for selecting candidates in the US or UK. I will vote for the person who will give me relief in tax or will build a hospital, not to a person who is JUTT because I m a JUTT. Recommend

  • Deejay

    PPP is winning in sindh not b\c of there work but b\c Still people Like BB and Shaheed Bhutto , But Slowly the Things are getting Change . GOD swear i havn’t seen My areas MPA , On road in my life and he belongs From PPP , BUt TO ALL i want to tell u . CHANGE is Coming And I hope IMRAN KHan WIll Get more then 30 seats , HE just Need Right candidate’z . Recommend

  • Amer Ali Shah

    All these are mere presumption what guarantee is there that the elections will actually take place?
    Will law and order not be a good excuse,the ques of voters with thinly spread out ‘securtity’ will be a mouth watering target for those candidates of hoors willing to blow themselves up.Recommend

  • Kismat

    It is a different Pakistan now – Full of problems that never existed before this rule. It is the rule of the Raj and not of the people. The poor are more poorer and deprived of education and daily bread and know very well that under whose watch they and others are suffering. More than likely the democratic raja rule of rajas has unfortunately failed and does not belong to the people. The leaders had an opportunity but failed. Now they can all kiss this kind of democracy Bye Bye. Just a bitter fact. Recommend

  • haseeb maken

    there is no future for pppp………………..Recommend

  • Peoplia

    I think a law should be put into effect in Pakistan that only university educated people be allowed to vote.Recommend

  • Mubashir Anis Silat

    @Rehan:
    PPP has historically been the party of over spending and Budget deficits whose policies are focused on rural areas. If Pakistan continues with PPP policies are economy is going to go down the drain and there would be more poor people than any debt funded “benazir income” support program can support.
    PPP is and continue to lead to de-industrialization and inflation without and as is evident from the their efforts to decrease the deficit it is going to curtail the income support programs.
    As for fighting terror part is concerned any party who is in power would be forced to follow that path PPP is not unique in that.
    As for the party politics of PPP it is not very democratic internally you are continue to see the hegemony of Zardari a leader who is a little short on character to say the least, and as wikileaks corroborates is a spineless leader who sells Pakistan short to the Americans.Recommend

  • zain

    @Rehan: Please elaborate how the PPP plans on eradicating poverty, what we have seen, it has only increased itRecommend

  • Anny

    Very interesting analysis. I agree with the most part – except I really doubt Imran Khan will get 30 seats in 2013. 10 maybe….but definitely not more.Recommend

  • Aslam khan

    Doom and gloom mean our nation are going through great depression and in darkness at this moment every Pakistani should look back and realize what had happen to Pakistan and where are we standing at this time ???? Our situation is just like Afghanistan and Iraq and Somalia In one since if we see it or analyze few points I will defenatlelly come to the actual issue about voting and ground reallity of voting system and party power in country about ppp MQM MlN Jui ,
    Pakistan is at define mement where is save or sink situation a head
    Our institutions and industries are ill and in very poor condition and peoples are deprieved from entity no Gas no electricity no jobs inflation is has broken the back bone of average of people in Pakistan no law and order no justic for average of people and bloodshed has draw spread all over our society are facing real tough time in history of last 63 years since 1047 till 2011 because of lack of leadership and militry intervition Pakistan had lost East Pakistan then 1971 war Kargel then many others today our nation are divided in ethnicity creed sectarian base war on terror has destabilized Pakistan we are called state of terror even we paid so much price then any other nation in the whole world Pakistan have lost so much to get involved with western war because leader ship failure and incompetent government and poor governance and all these party head are agent but noon of them is leader or have leadership qualities no one been called leader on international politics index
    Indeed after fore fathers or founders there would be only Zulfiqar Ali was leader and now we Imran khan who have thought and vision quality and personality of leadership and world see him new player in politics as leader and have dignity and respect of that level like Nelson Mendela or Dr Muthir mohammad many international level
    There is deference between flood and tsunami flood we could predect and do som thing to save life and property but TSUNAMI is out of control and it’s just take few minute to sweep miles of miles and take every thing back to the sea and damage is example are in Japan today they are in dangerous than world war bombing but they try to hide so much from outside world .
    At the end of I will say. Senario my friend have given on vote bank and the parties strenth in their province and the culture we have old fashion politics then indeed no one will sweep and. Seats and power will be shared and situation will be same and musical chair game will be just like every other government but at this time our is in doom and gloom and peoples are running out of patients and I think this election or uprising will be deferent than past
    Geopolitical situation and world economy turmoil and war on terror will affected us foreign aid will be restricted. And Pakisan will face tough time
    It’s time for our nation to decide to choose one and only one party who could save nation and relay on our self and awareness has already come to every city and village of Pakistan
    PTI and imran khan and hid leadership which is new and unpopular but are in places every consituancy in Pakistan and have best research team behind PTI world wide and funding system inside and internationally by peoples of Pakistan for PTI and their welfare work in past and presence and average Pakistani trust on PTI and Imran khan national level and international level and world media now imran khan but local media even don’t no Prime minister Galani and now is time for changed peoples are sick and tired with gunda raj and killing land mafia and corruption and fraud fund like Benazir fund and etc
    Our judiciary and army establishment already no Pakistan is running out of time
    We need serious leadership to save Pakistan so present and on ground reality will deferent then analyst
    PTI and chairman Imran khan will inshahAllah will sweep
    We should so patriotism and stand with truth and save as one nation one voice with one leader for the betterment prosperity of our nation and next generation because we ows motherland
    God Bless PakistanRecommend

  • AD Channa

    Very well written. I’m with PPP. The single major victory of PPP govt is 2 survive, despite being abused n hammered by a powerful media n non-democratic forces. Well done PPP n long live PPP. Recommend

  • mubashir

    @Rehan:
    And eradicate poverty they will by eradicating the poor. As for the secular part all parties are if you want to elect a government whose economic policy is taking away the independence of the state bank and humongous budget deficits (that lead to inflation) than go ahead knock your self out. Rhetoric doesn’t count for anything if not backed by underlying policy initiative!Recommend

  • akhtar hussain jakhrani

    i cant understand the logic given by the writer. if history has anything to do then one should reflect the results of 1997 elections when ppp under benazir could only bag less than 20 seats when they went into elections after removal of their government. Now charisma of corrupt zardari is no where close to benazir. The policies of current ppp has nothing to do with people or rather i would say there is no leftist or rightist vote exist in our country. There is no single policy indicating them to be leftist. The media advancement has given political awareness to everyone. ppp sindh card has also been buried in river Indus. they are zero in Punjab after their demand of more provinces and they don’t have any significance in Baluchistan and hopefully would hardly matter in kpk because of war on terror. i hope they will be washed out in coming polls. Recommend