Revisiting Pakistan’s ‘Strategic Depth’
We need to engage with both Afghanistan and India to leverage our geographic position to develop strategic depth with positive connotations.
Two words that hold our country hostage is our policy of maintaining ‘strategic depth’ in Afghanistan. Apart from referring to a poorly titled adult film, the policy envisages to protect Pakistan’s eastern borders from unwanted Indian influence.
However, the consequences of continuing with this policy and differentiating between the ‘good’ and the ‘bad’ Taliban, has led to accusations of Pakistan playing a ‘double-game’ in Afghanistan. For many the accusation has become quite stale and repetitive. It seems to have become an open secret, with many accepting it as a reality, a part of the status-quo for dealing with the troubles in the region.
Whether the policy has been successful is debatable. The military’s and the ISI’s continued links with the Haqqani network ensures that they are a sought after broker for any back channel attempt to woo the Taliban.
The strategy aims to maintain Pakistani influence in/over Afghanistan, and to thwart alleged Indian designs. However, the policy has at the same time made Pakistan quite unpopular with large segments of the Afghan establishment. Interfering in Afghanistan’s affairs, while demanding an end to foreign influence in Pakistan is met with much ridicule in foreign capitals; it reeks of hypocrisy.
The policy is also questionable, as it breeds violence, and is responsible for the deaths of thousands in Pakistan and Afghanistan. As the violence continues, Pakistan is sure to be in the news, accused for fostering, abating or at the very least tolerating continued bloodshed to maintain its interests.
The result is the ‘image deficit’ that haunts Pakistan. The dismal public response to the floods in Pakistan for example was attributed to this effect. It has also been more difficult for our economic managers to garner favourable trade concessions and development grants. Winning over wider public support remains a problem, as Pakistan remains associated with fostering rather than curtailing violence in Afghanistan. Politicians in the west are portrayed as weak by the right-wing media, such as Fox News in the US, for taking initiatives to support Pakistan.
Look at any article posted on any western news outlet. The comments question the calls for sympathy for Pakistan as we are branded as supporters of terrorism, who inflict material and physical damage on their interests.
An alternative strategy
There needs to be an alternative to our current strategy. The alternative need not be between defending Pakistan from India or bowing before it and allowing it a free hand in Afghanistan. We need to engage with both Afghanistan and India to leverage our geographic position to develop strategic depth with positive connotations.
The US, Afghanistan and India have been pressing Pakistan to allow the transit of Indian goods over Pakistan through to Afghanistan and vice versa for years. I say, let the goods pass, hell put them on the trains. That will help to give our faltering railways a financial shot in the arm. Extend the Iran-Pakistan pipeline into India, let the gas flow. Transit fees galore! Rather than questioning Indian development aid to Afghanistan we should support it. Geographically it’s more of an advantage for us, as any increase in economic activity in Afghanistan will immediately suck in Pakistani exports.
What would the advantages be? Imagine the headlines. Pakistan would look like the peace builder, shunning international criticism and situating itself as committed to the development of an Afghan state. We would also be seen on the diplomatic offensive vis-à-vis India. With Pakistan offering so many incentives, India will have to respond in the affirmative. After all India is cultivating its image as a regional and global superpower, the ball will firmly be in India’s court. It cannot be seen rebuffing genuine gestures from its old foe.
Importantly, a policy that leverages our geographic position economically rather than militarily negates any association with violence. We would be treated as victims rather than the guilty.
If India is indeed developing consulates across Afghanistan housing RAW agents that ferment trouble in Pakistan, improved economic ties will help shed a spotlight on the functioning of these consulates. As Pakistan becomes vital for transporting Indian-Afghanistan exports and imports to each other, minimising any threat to these links will become a primary concern for Indian traders. This will build added pressure on those who dare concoct nefarious designs to fuel militancy in Balochistan for example.
India can switch on and off the belligerent rhetoric as India’s economy has little or no interests in Pakistan. However, a Pakistan which is vital for Indian trade, supply of resources etc will have no choice but to tone down any sabre rattling that seems to be a cyclical part of Pakistan-India relations.
So where does Pakistan’s security come in?
In any period of belligerent hostility Pakistan will have the ability to cut of energy and trade links. Containers can be seized, Indian traders in Pakistan arrested, and diplomatically we can garner support by portraying ourselves of peace. We have gone the extra mile to foster our relations with India and support a viable Afghanistan. India would be seen as the aggressor. How is that for maintaining strategic depth?
Our present policy allows for India’s security establishment to deal with her interests in Afghanistan ignoring any media or public scrutiny. A policy that places economic links at its foundations will open up Indian policy on Pakistan and Afghanistan and the actions of its security agencies to wider scrutiny. The competition between competing interests will insure that whatever policy is actually implemented is a watered down compromise that is not a real threat to Pakistan.
We have to find alternatives to the status-quo. With the nation reeling under flooding, terrorism and economic stagnation we are more dependent on foreign assistance than at any point in our history. They are not many variables that we can control for. We can’t control how the foreign press paints us, how we are perceived abroad etc. However, what little we can do to help alter these perceptions, we must. And this does not have to lead to subjugation to Indian influence that many right wing commentators would suggest.
If we are to continue with our obsession with thwarting Indian designs, can we please do it in a manner that doesn’t hold us all hostage to violence and paint us as terrorist?
Shaping global opinion is a long term effort which must start sooner than later. Our challenges for the future, access to water, natural disasters caused by climate change and development depends in a large part to interaction and support of our neighbours and the international community. Politics and security needs are always a concern, but we must get society at large, the world over on our sign. We are not the cause but the victims. Strategic depth? Sure, but by other means.
The views expressed by the writer and the reader comments do not necessarily reflect the views and policies of The Express Tribune.
Sane advice. Perhaps too late and still falling on deaf ears. The drying up of international help due to perception created through policy of many years can not be changed in time to save from wide-spread starvation. Without drastic reduction in military expenditure and size at this very minute, it is far-fetched to think of gas-pipeline and transit trades for sustainability. Peace.Recommend
Well said. Foreign policy is said to be a reflection of inner strength but in case of Pakistan, the foreign policy is manipulated by our institutions to strengthen their hold inside the country. There are institutions and interest groups inside Pakistan which rely on anti-India rhetoric and imaginary external threats to secure a major portion of national resources. If we want to develop economic ties, then this rhetoric will have be toned down and subsequently people will start questioning the disproporitonate allocation of resources to those institutions.
In the 21st century, relations between countries are guided mainly by economic interests. Our economy is in ruins and nobody is going to pay us forever to act as mercenaries as we did during the Cold war. We have completely lost whatever relevance we had during Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. Now we merely rely on nuissance value; pro establishment intellectuals infact proudly point to the fact that terrorist are operating in our backyard which can only be neutralized by our army! We need to convert this country from a chaotic pseudo ideological security state to a welfare state.Recommend
Nice thoughts Nadir… Indeed we need a complete revamp of our foreign policy…Recommend
Nadir, I always respected ur comments but don’t u think this is a very western view you are trying to portray. Yup as someone said its very sane but the reality is different from our views. By the way I do agree that shapping global opinion is a long term task and it requires a lot of effort from people with die hard support for Pakistan not for money.. any ways.. nice article to start with..Recommend
NIce solutions..but the one for countering the nefarious designs of the counsulates in Afghanistan is too ‘bookish’.Okay..we shouldn’t pay back the Indians in the same coin by supporting their rogue elements.but what stops us from exposing this agenda of theirs in full thrust?Why are we scared?Has our government brought this to any forum?Why is our media silent on it?Economics will not always work,Nadir.If for example(and you won’t like this one..I know your views about the middle east too well!)Israel pours in billions of dollars into Palestine for their ‘support’..and still keeps the atrocities on the up..will it work?Recommend
Gr8 articleRecommend
Dont get me wrong, I am not suggesting perfect alternatives, I just dont think the status-quo is really making us safe or helping us in any way apart from painting us as terrorists, from where a vicious cycle of violence, accusations and counter-accusations continue on and on. Why not a multi-faceted strategy?Recommend
totally agree with author….this mirage called strategic depth or assets have proved costly beyond imagination for pakistan.
so called ”strategic depth” is proving to be a ”strategic death” for pakistan.even after realizing the well known fact that sowing the crop of extremism will only end up in the harvest of destruction ,pakistani policymakers have not stopped supporting haqqani network in afganistan.this decision will surely bring more catastrophe in pakistan in coming days simultaneously alienating the rest of the world.pakistan will have to stop the acts of double game and declare her stand on war on terror.healthy economical relations between india ,pakistan and afganistan are very vital for the development of the regionRecommend
Always wondered why we havent already become a channel for goods between other countries and Afghanistan. I mean look at the monetary rewards, never thought of it as having strategic political advantages. Good analysis Sir, you shouldn’t be part of the brain drain chain. Come back here and do something please. Blogging isn’t helping anyone no matter how intriguing.Recommend
This is a complex topic. Strategic depth is one thing and allowing India access to Afghanistan through Pakistan is another thing. The biggest stumbling block to your suggestion is the trust deficit existing between the three countries. If you go back 70 years or so into history one really would not blame Pakistani thinking, as it stands on this issue.
From what little I know, I am not a great advocate of ‘strategic depth’, as with all policies its time has passed.
I do agree with you that another approach is required. A great read.Recommend
How does blocking trade between India and Afghanistan help Pakistan? Allowing it will only make Afghanistan and India feel more dependent on Pakistan, and presumably Pakistan can get some monetary and diplomatic advantage out of that too. Sometimes it feels our crude village/tribal mentally also works out the foreign policy for us. Its time to grow up.Recommend
Mr. El Edroos, A sane article. I endorse every word you wrote. To attract trade and investment a country needs a good image based on reality. But getting a positive image is an extremely difficult job. Good things seldom make news. Look at us, our buffoons in Delhi made a mess of CWGs. We spent a staggering Rs. 35,000 crores ( Pak Rs about 70,000 crores) on CWGs but, images of a few unclean bathrooms put whole India to the shame. The same Delhi built the world’s sixth largest airport, spread over 5.4 million sq.ft, with 78 aero-bridges and a capacity to handle 34 million passengers annually and that too within a record 37 months of time! Yet, it made no news.
I gave you above example because Pakistanis always complain that the world media (read western media) is biased against their country and it never gets a positive coverage. Yes, to some extent you guys may be right. But, it is not just Pakistan, every other third world country, including India gets the same treatment. Pakistan may be getting more negative press, but you cannot deny the fact that there is an ugly reality behind it. A couple of decades ago, India too used to be depicted in a negative way in the western media.
However, economic success of the Indians forced them to write and admit, albeit grudgingly, about the rise of India. Believe me, westerners still want to see India as a land of exotica where they can see fascinating images of naked sadhoos, snake charmers, exotic dancing girls, kama sutra , ferocious goddess Kali and of course ancient temples with all kind of perverted erotica sculpted in stones! But, they hate to see Chennai replacing Detroit as the 21st century’s automotive hub of the world.
As an employee of an Indian multi-national giant, I have seen many goras and gories (particularly Aussies and Irish) talking about India in glorious terms, but trying their best to hide the inverted snobbery hidden behind their soft words. At end of conversation you are left in no doubt that how lucky your company is to find them as it’s employees!!
All I want to convey to my Pakistani friends is that stop complaining and concentrate on economy as suggested by Mr. El Edroos, because that is the only way in today’s world to gain respect and care. Hypnotizing yourselves by repeating how glorious your religion is not going to take you anywhere, the strategic depth, strategic location and Utopian geo-political ambitions have been rendered irrelevant in the 21st century. It no longer matters how big your ‘bum’ is, in fact, the only thing that matters today, how fat your purse is!Recommend
A very good article. Pakistan, right now , is pushing Afghanistan and Iran, for that matter, into India’s arm.
With a faltering economy Pakistan’s time is running out. Strategic depth is doing the opposite it was meant to do.Recommend
Mr. El Adroos
Every nation desires strategic depth and it is part of international diplomacy. However, the means to achieve that aim is ever changing with geo-political situations. We have the blood of same genome, than why we are stuck up? We may engage in suspicion or rhetoric, but accept that ‘the Lakeer’ between us is a legacy and we have to live with it till we desire to remove it by heart. The first causality of animosity or sibling rivalry between three of us, as it usually happens in any family, is business dealings and economic ties.
This feeling is aggravated to the extent that “Meri Chahe Bhains Mar Jaahe, Samne Wale Ka Katta (calf) Jaroor Marna Chahiye”. Let us all realize whether we are gaining anything out of it? Differences apart, can’t we have exchanges at the level where both sides are benefited economically. In my opinion, the trade agreement in such circumstances is much elaborative and extensive as each party tends to protect its interest up to the hilt.
However, as a normal civil society, are we not asking too much from our establishments? In our wishful thinking we desire to convert our politicians and military establishments from oppressors to our true leaders? Will it happen? Will they think national interest before their own interest which is fostered by animosity?Recommend
Its a good good article and gives the solution not only to afghan war but also points towards the benefits of achieving good relations with India. As a resident of FATA, I better know the benefits of prosperous Afghanistan because it will ultimately have positive effect on the lives of people residing there. The reason why the trible belt is lagging behind other parts of the country is the Afghan war which has made the people so tired of this unsuccessful practice of invasion.
@Neeraj, India
I completely agree with you. Pakistan need real hard work to uplift its economy and to improve its image in the world. Most of Pakistanis are willing to have friendly ties with India. So its a win win situation for both countries to exploit the Afghan market. It will not only improve Afghan economy and infrastructure but will also make Pakistan and India to think about their policies.Recommend
Brilliant!Recommend
So your suggestion is to pretend to normalise relations with India in order to gain a new form of leverage, i.e., whenever you want to, you can “seize containers and arrest Indian traders”, which you’re unable to do today because India doesn’t depend on Pakistan for anything. In other words, you advocate the continuance of state terror by other means. Is this the new definition of “strategic depth”? I’m disappointed, and certainly hope India doesn’t fall for this ploy.Recommend
My views given above, stating that a lack of trust was the main stumbling block just got endorsed by Ganesh Prasads comment.
This is a complex subject.Recommend
The write is an idealist and writes an ideal fiction.Recommend
Syed, you have a point but don’t you believe that we will let your country live free after-all being so annoying as your country is. Let me be clear about our intentions, our aim is to recapture Pakistan and make you people sing: “sare jahan se achcha hain hindustan humara”. It wont be long before you will have tricolor stickers on your scooter/car. Don’t get me wrong we don’t want to harm your country, infact, we like your country and we like it so much that we want it to be part of India. It is our desire to see this happen as soon as possible. And with God’s grace all signs are encouraging.Recommend
Troll alert…
I dont think the above guy is real. His comments are inflammatory. Funny that we always find one exactly at a time when the commentators are not at loggerheads.Recommend
Rajat, what i have written is what i want and what i believe. IS it too hard to for you to accept? may be that is why you are referring it as inflammatory. As i said, i agree with syed and no debate there, if Pakistan leaders heed to what is written on this website, and so many other websites, Pakistan would be in a much better condition. What i am saying is, even if Pakistan does all things right, it will get no respite from India. History is always a guide to the destiny. What i am saying is, probably, Pakistan’s future lies with India. This might seems outrageous now, but consider for a moment world without its sole hyper-power – US. As is likely, US wont probably be a much of a force in next 1-2 decades. Clock is ticking for the dollar. By that time, India will be a major-major power along with China. Once US is out of scene you will see further claims from India. Don’t expect China to come help you, they will have their own claims on Siberia and ultimately Arctic — which is a treasure-cove for unlimited Oil and Gas. Only way for Pakistan to remain free is to become sufficiently powerful in next decade or two because if it is weak like today, you will certainly see some action, probably a blood-less coup and Pakistani people might even come with India voluntarily. Mind you, i am not saying that India will go for blood-war or anything like that. Just as power shifts, impressions change — things happen. A lot will depend on this decade. Who knows if “The Taliban” creates so much nuisance that Pakistan politicians ask India for help. Also, looking into history, Pakistan has been for over-whelming period of so-called-civilized world, a part of India with few pieces on and off. So, if, Pakistan keep going like this, we will make curry of it.Recommend
To an East Asian person like me who has traveled in India, Pakistan & Bangladesh both Indians & Pakistanis appear the same. yes 100%. you may argue but look at your ethnicity, history, culture, religion, food, language everything is 100% similar…Recommend
Good article Practical solutions are:
India-Pak should establish a coalition govt of Northern Alliance – Taliban so that those nomads will start learning how to properly govern and run the economy of their country. This will remove the cold war between them on afghan soil.
India is not at all dependent on any exports/imports to grow it’s economy. World Bank report has shown that if Pakistan gets access to indian market, Pakistan GDP can grow at 7-8% annually next 10 years compared to present 2-3% growth. This will add up huge boost and fund the forex reserves of Pakistan. But the army won’t allow it as once Pakistan economy becomes strong, people will start questioning budget allocations, allocations to provinces etc which will brought out the allocations to army which is 40% of your budget sucking your lifeline.
India-Pak came close to a solution in 2007 but USA stopped it as once kashmir problem is solved, the defence budgets of both countries will come down which is not good for USA/Israel. So if India-Pakistan implements the 2007 solution now in 2011, it will save $4 billion dollars for Pakistan and $11 billion dollars for India. 78% of Pakistan budget money is eaten by army, interest payments on $57 billion dollar debt to IMF/USA. So if you start saving $4 billion annually you can pre-pay some of your debt every year thus reducing the interest payments.
Indian IT/ITES/Healthcare/PetroChemicals/Refineries can invest atleast $3-5 billion in Pakistan economy thus creating 1 million new jobs every year if Kashmir problem is solved.
If India-Iran-Paki pipeline is implemented, Pakistan will get $160 million dollars as transit fees from india and $100 million dollars as maintainance fee from Iran which will create extra 2,00,000 new jobs in Pakistan.
If Kashmir problem is solved, Pakistan textiles companies can get raw cotton from India which 30% cheaper than other countries thus expanding the manufacturing of textiles and increase in exports from Pakistan which will save and add new jobs in Karachi and Hyderabad.
If Kashmir problem is solved, Pakistan can get cheap nuclear energy from india which will solve power cuts in Pakistan and continuos supply of gas from Iran and Electricity from India to improve Pakistan’s manufacturing sector and boost Pakistan’s economy very well.
If Kashmir problem is solved, India-China-Pakistan can revive ancient silk route which save 28% of transit costs and all 3 countries economist get boosted by atleast $2 billion for Pakistan, $6 billion for India, $7 billion for China.
If Kashmir problem is solved, Indian Universities can start sending their faculty to Pakistan colleges thus uplifting the education standards in Pakistan which will automatically reduce extremism, terrorism and unemployment in near future.Recommend
If India-Pakistan come to an agreement on Afghanisthan, they can throw out NATO shit. NATO is cultivating poppy in afghanisthan and exporting it into India, Pakistan, China to destroy our youth step by step so that our economies will go to dogs. If Pakistan army shows one sign of co-operation with india by taking the first step of handing Hafeez, india will take second step in Afghanisthan for a reconciliation with Pakistan. As an Indian i hate taliban, but i always had sympathy with innocent pakistanis who are victims of this cruel abuse.
The current govt in India headed by Congress which is a secular party and is more pragmatic and will be in power till 2014. So before 2014, if Pak Army/Govt can take this first step of co-operation, we can establish good economic relationship and our defence budgests will start coming down and jobs will go up. USA took first step about nuclear agreement with India in 2008 and they are reaping the benefits now and allowing more investment into India and vice-versa thus creating new jobs in new sectors like Retail, Insurance, Healthcare.
If BJP comes to power in 2014 in India and if Pakistan and India haven’t come to an agreement by then, those bJP guys will surely start another war. The norm in indian politics is any foreign policy initiative started by previous govt will be continued by next govt. So if Pakistan seals the deal now with Congress govt, BJP will not longer have a chance of starting a war as they have to follow the initiative started by Congress govt.
Can you guys please tell your govt about my suggestions? That first step will solve lot of conflicts and future wars and billions of dollars of money. Ego is self destructive. Pak Army/Govt should be practical and not swayed by personal ego. Plz use your reason and let’s start initiative.Recommend